AlphaDex v1.0 : Improving the Payoff Model

In AlphaDex v1.0, we introduce three improvements:

  1. The side with less stakes can enjoy slightly better odds.
  2. Earlier staking are also rewarded with slightly better odds.
  3. You can now directly stake and receive ETH (instead of WETH).

The new version is now at https://www.alphadex.org/ .

The changes can be best demonstrated with an example.

  1. Assume epoch X started at 00:00:00 and the round length is 8 hrs.
  2. Adam staked 0.5 ETH on the bearish side at 00:01:00 .
  3. Betty staked 5 ETH on the bullish side at 00:06:00 .
  4. Conrad staked 0.5 ETH on the bearish side at 00:07:00 .
  5. Hence there are totally 1 bearish stakes and 5 bullish stakes.

Assume bears win. In previous AlphaDex v0.9, the payoffs (before commission) are:

  1. Adam receive 1 ETH, and the return is +100%.
  2. Betty receive 4 ETH, and the return is -20%.
  3. Conrad receive 1 ETH, and the return is +100%.

And in AlphaDex v1.0, the payoffs are:

  1. Adam receive 1.02194 ETH, and the return is +104.39%.
  2. Betty receive 3.96 ETH, and the return is -20.8%.
  3. Conrad receive 1.01806 ETH, and the return is +103.61%.

Here bears have even better profits, because they had less stakes.

And Adam can receive slightly more ETH than Conrad, because Adam staked earlier than Conrad, and therefore took more risks of uncertainties.

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If you like formulas, then this section is for you.

1 + (5–1)/1*0.01 = 1.04 .

[here 0.01 is an adjustable factor called factor_stake]

If bears win, then the total profit for bears is 1 * 1.04 = 1.04 ETH.

Among the bears, Adam can receive slightly more ETH than Conrad, because Adam staked earlier than Conrad, and therefore took more risks of uncertainties.

In fact, Adam can receive:

0.5 + 1.04 / (2+7/8*0.01+1/8*0.01) * (1+7/8*0.01) = 1.02194 ETH.

And Conrad can receive:

0.5 + 1.04 / (2+7/8*0.01+1/8*0.01) * (1+1/8*0.01) = 1.01806 ETH.

[here 0.01 is also an adjustable factor called factor_time]

To summarize, it is now more profitable making the market for AlphaDex.